Online Prediction of Exponential Decay Time Series with Human-Agent Application
Ariel Rosenfeld, Joseph Keshet, Claudia Goldman and Sarit Kraus; Online Prediction of Exponential Decay Time Series with Human-Agent Application, ECAI 2016 [27% acceptance rate].
Exponential decay time series are prominent in many
fields. In some applications, the time series behavior can change over
time due to a change in the user’s preferences or a change of environment. In this paper we present an innovative online learning algorithm, which we name Exponentron, for the prediction of exponential
decay time series. We state a regret bound for our setting, which theoretically compares the performance of our online algorithm relative
to the performance of the best batch prediction mechanism, which
can be chosen in hindsight from a class of hypotheses after observing
the entire time series. In experiments with synthetic and real-world
data sets, we found that the proposed algorithm compares favorably
with the classic time series prediction methods by providing up to
41% improvement in prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we used the
proposed algorithm for the design of a novel automated agent for the
improvement of the communication process between a driver and
its automotive climate control system. Throughout extensive human
study with 24 drivers we show that our agent improves the communication process and increases drivers’ satisfaction, exemplifying the
Exponentron’s applicative benefit.